Weekly Currency News: Brexit Referendum
19 June 2016 · 2 min read
Brexit referendum of Thursday 23 will be the main event in the week ahead, and probably the most important since few years.
Pools published this weekend showed that support for the ‘Remain’ campaign had regained its lead over a vote to leave, while last week leave option took the lead. Brexit event will affect all the pairs, not just sterling ones, but USD and EUR ones
Currencies last week
- EUR/USD: maintained on range 1,1200-1,1300
- GBP/USD: was up 1.09% at 1.4352 late Friday
- EUR/GBP: down 0.65% at 0.7852 late Friday
- USD/JPY: plunges below 105
Main events this week:
Ahead of the Brexit vote, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington, on Tuesday and appear before lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday to discuss monetary policy and the state of the economy. Investors will pay attention to the words of Yellen that can give clues about the next USD rate hike.
On Tuesday, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts. The german economy is one of Draghi’s most critical partners, the data can determine if eurozone remain together with the monetary policy decisions.
In the U.K., voting in the referendum on EU membership is to take place. Last week’s murder of pro-EU lawmaker Jo Cox appears to have tipped some polls toward the “Remain” camp, though earlier polls showed the electorate is narrowly divided.
The yen weakened further on reduced safe-haven demand on Monday as investors squarely focused on this week’s Brexit vote and upbeat poll data for the “Remain” campaign.
On Monday, Governor Kuroda will speak. Traders watch his speeches closely as they are often used to drop subtle hints regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.