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By Associated FX Analysis Team

Kantox currency update: markets in calm, ahead of U.S. data

Published July 14, 2017


The major currencies remained moving within previous ranges on a calm trading session on Thursday with investors awaiting U.S. retail sales and inflation figures, due later today.

The incipient dollar recovery seen earlier this week has been capped by the Federal Reserve’s concerns about hiking rates too fast in a context of weakening inflation.  Today’s CPI, thus, is likely to be observed with especial attention, as it might determine the Fed’s near-term path.

EUR/USD: hovering around 1.1400. After hitting 17-month highs at 1.1490, the pair has remained consolidating within a narrow range between 1.1375 and 1.1440. At London market opening times, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1415.

GBP/USD returns above 1.2900. The Sterling advanced on Thursday for second consecutive day, and after bouncing up from levels close to 1.2800, the pair has extended beyond 1.2900 and approaches near-term resistance area at 1.3030/50.  At London market opening times, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2960.

USD/JPY: consolidating near 113.00. U.S. dollar pullback from Tuesday’s highs at 1.1450 found support at 112.80 area and the pair consolidated on Tuesday within a narrow range around 113.00. At London market opening times, the USD/JPY is trading at 113.25.

In the Calendar Today

From the string of  U.S. economic indicators expected to be released today, these are the most relevant:

At 12:30 GMT the U.S. retail sales, are expected to have picked up in June after May’s contraction. The dollar would need a strong reading in consumption to extend its recovery.

At the same time, we will have the release of the U.S. consumer prices index, which will be analysed from a Fed monetary policy perspective. In that sense, a weak CPI reading might weigh on the dollar.

GMT       US: retail sales (MoM) (Jun)
Prev: -0.3%     Cons: 0.1%

12:30 GMT       US: Consumer Prices Index  (YoY) (Jun)
Prev: 1.9%     Cons: 1.7%



Currency forecasts Q3


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